Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 19.686604 21.418561 23.333415 25.627723 28.329695 31.446820 35.369920
2024-10-20 16.850956 19.066486 21.692691 25.103774 29.527662 35.245304 43.524012
2024-10-27 15.598293 18.233214 21.548065 26.180474 32.779509 42.402035 58.868495
2024-11-03 14.211337 16.983531 20.618358 25.976383 34.185202 47.433142 73.995561
2024-11-10 13.234405 16.110522 20.016354 26.051193 35.942424 53.605900 95.949870
2024-11-17 12.484209 15.437841 19.572520 26.235225 37.868063 60.871000 128.683651
2024-11-24 11.848463 14.846633 19.153704 26.355242 39.679362 68.811641 177.923259
2024-12-01 11.211781 14.189588 18.552652 26.061281 40.622342 75.356424 241.982621
2024-12-08 10.731464 13.715024 18.172685 26.070998 42.159678 84.456734 370.105998
2024-12-15 10.257880 13.211613 17.694073 25.827156 43.093670 92.629676 593.242558
2024-12-22 9.829179 12.744389 17.228830 25.538197 43.855362 101.035518 1104.188570
2024-12-29 9.457865 12.339538 16.829127 25.315930 44.724664 110.865220 3241.006695
2025-01-05 9.122319 11.974674 16.474732 25.153296 45.765222 123.106573 NaN
2025-01-12 8.740272 11.517092 15.932701 24.557549 45.551911 129.737075 NaN
2025-01-19 8.652644 11.515211 16.162033 25.550941 50.001481 169.808659 NaN
2025-01-26 8.381328 11.205190 15.833278 25.335124 50.911868 190.792553 NaN
2025-02-02 8.172280 10.984202 15.644872 25.397571 52.732142 225.950579 NaN
2025-02-09 7.993805 10.803213 15.513982 25.569517 55.005274 277.947741 NaN
2025-02-16 7.819370 10.619830 15.365324 25.682404 57.157453 346.566793 NaN
2025-02-23 7.604867 10.360487 15.061007 25.400008 57.801344 401.444533 NaN
2025-03-02 7.440840 10.178092 14.888022 25.408884 59.604042 511.924855 NaN
2025-03-09 7.257027 9.954969 14.625868 25.175160 60.387392 622.090945 NaN
2025-03-16 7.078678 9.734379 14.356836 24.898256 60.931496 757.635016 NaN